Will the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?

This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with the Democratic "Yes" side offering an extraordinary 888% implied yield against just 37.3% for Republicans, suggesting the 17¢ price may significantly undervalue Democratic chances in what is historically a competitive upstate New York district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $21.3M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite substantial capital committed, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in strong Republican lean, but the extreme yield differential warrants scrutiny about whether this reflects genuine fundamentals or a liquidity mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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