Will the Democratic Party win the OR-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $29.6K open interest, suggesting the 93¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The massive 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of thin liquidity at the extremes—betting against Democratic victory would require only a 1¢ move to generate outsized returns, indicating minimal real conviction behind the current price. With 201 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a stale market awaiting either significant political developments in OR-01 or fresh capital to establish genuine price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade