Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2425.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, reflecting the heavily favored Democratic position in Oregon—a state Biden won by 16 points in 2020. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $31,550 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high theoretical yield, indicating traders may be skeptical of the 7¢ price or unwilling to take the contrarian Republican bet. The recent price decline from 8¢ to 7¢ over seven days, paired with a Cliff Risk Index of 13, suggests modest volatility, though with nearly two years until resolution, this market remains highly speculative and sensitive to political shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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