Will the Democratic Party win the PA-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) for Democratic victory in PA-06, yet the implied yield on the "No" side reaches an extraordinary 2416.7%, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity on the Republican side with only $29k in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1-cent spread is tight, but the massive yield discrepancy and elevated cliff risk index of 13 indicate this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the headline price, particularly given the 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election when meaningful polling and campaign developments could shift sentiment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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