Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?
0x4465567f82d86fe0493c5629e53f30ddd2e3e9fc40de7523614480060bcaa745 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? · match confidence 0.71 · close-time delta 29h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2701% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 8.56 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 431% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
486 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the name of the person who is named People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive. If more than one person is named Sexiest Man Alive by People Magazine, this market will resolve in favor of the person whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If no Sexiest Man Alive is announced for 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be People (https://people.com/) or a consensus of credible reporting.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x4465567f82d86fe0493c5629e53f30ddd2e3e9fc40de7523614480060bcaa745 yes 100