Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951 · closes Jun 7, 2026 · 53 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2598.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 183.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.05 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 5340% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.11 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2475% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
367 indicator snapshots · 65 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951 yes 100