Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1037.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 19.3% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a low-probability event at 12%. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $20.5K open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquid conditions that could make entry/exit challenging, though the 258-day timeframe provides reasonable runway before December 2026 expiry. The modest 1¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market hasn't reacted to recent geopolitical developments, potentially leaving the Yes position undervalued if nuclear testing becomes a credible threat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

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