Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely low 2% probability of Russian nuclear testing by June 2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 15,954% implied yield—a massive asymmetry that reflects the tiny position size ($94 in 24h volume against $16.7M open interest) rather than genuine edge. The price has declined from 3¢ to 2¢ over seven days, suggesting modest recent skepticism, though with only 74 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this remains a highly speculative tail-risk bet with minimal liquidity to execute at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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