Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme volatility (1064% realized vol) with a massive 57¢ spread and only $10 in 24-hour volume against $208k open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential pricing inefficiency.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme volatility (1064% realized vol) with a massive 57¢ spread and only $10 in 24-hour volume against $208k open interest, suggesting thin order books and potential pricing inefficiency. The 59¢ price has declined 5¢ over seven days while the asymmetric implied yields (495% for Yes vs. 1435% for No) indicate the No side is significantly underpriced relative to tail risk, though the neutral regime and moderate info arrival rate (2.6/hour) suggest limited new developments are driving the recent price action. With 43 days to the June 2 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of only 2, this market has time for additional candidate clarity, but the extreme vol ratio of 4.27 and wide spreads make this a high-friction trading environment unsuitable for most retail participants.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the South Dakota at-large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x2470f7af40585b7537ffb9ea92469f4f6e4c561ef5644402841b57e986a90afe yes 100