Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

The 72¢ price reflects a highly asymmetric risk profile, with the "No" side offering an extreme 1998.6% implied yield compared to just 333.4% for "Yes," suggesting markets are pricing in substantial tail risk of continued operations despite the near-term deadline. With 45 days to expiry and only $73k open interest against $30k daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable two-sided participation. The 229% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price decline over seven days, combined with a 1.5/hour information arrival rate, suggest this geopolitically sensitive market is actively repricing on incoming news about Iran tensions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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