Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

The market is pricing an 83% probability of Trump announcing an end to Iran military operations by June 30th, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—101% for Yes versus 2,385% for No—signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity on the No side, suggesting traders are heavily skewed bullish despite meaningful geopolitical uncertainty. With 75 days to expiry, $153.5M open interest, and a realized volatility of 157%, this is a high-conviction, volatile market that has drifted down 2 cents over seven days; the 1.2 info arrivals per hour indicate active news flow that could trigger sharp repricing if military escalation occurs. The tight 1¢ spread and substantial 24-hour volume of $23.7M provide reasonable liquidity, but the elevated cliff risk index of 5 suggests binary event risk concentrated near the resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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