Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme imbalance with the No side offering a 1,642.7% implied yield versus just 20.3% for Yes, despite the 90¢ price reflecting strong Republican favorability in TX-05. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $15k open interest suggest severe illiquidity, making the asymmetric yields potentially unreliable—the No side's astronomical yield likely reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this market is vulnerable to sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election, and traders should be cautious of the wide spread and low trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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