Will the Democratic Party win the TX-14 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1217% implied yield for Yes positions against just 27% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $20.9K open interest. The zero 24-hour volume and flat 7-day price action indicate this is a dead market with minimal trading activity, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 201 days to expiry and a high Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a speculative position that has stalled rather than an actively-discovered market price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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