Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1117.4% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Democrats are dramatically undervalued at just 14¢ in a district that has historically leaned competitive or Democratic. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $21k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates low liquidity despite the substantial yield opportunity, creating potential execution risk for traders attempting to capitalize on the apparent mismatch. With 201 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 6, the market has adequate time for repricing, but the neutral regime and lack of recent trading activity suggest this may be a stale or overlooked position rather than a genuine consensus view.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade