Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat?

This Texas-19 Democratic market shows extreme mispricing with a 2417% implied yield on the Yes side against just 13.7% on the No, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential arbitrage opportunity given the $0 24-hour volume despite $32.9M open interest. The 7-cent price has declined from 8 cents over seven days while maintaining 893% realized volatility and a 1.94 vol ratio, indicating sharp price swings in a market with minimal recent trading activity. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the massive yield asymmetry and high cliff risk (13) suggest this contract may be mispriced due to thin order books rather than genuine market consensus on TX-19's Democratic prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade