Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. The market is pricing Tom Sell as an overwhelming favorite at 91¢ with a primary just 10 months away, but the extreme 9,300% implied yield on "No" combined with a 61% realized volatility and maxed-out 10 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant tail risk embedded in this contract.
Analysis
The market is pricing Tom Sell as an overwhelming favorite at 91¢ with a primary just 10 months away, but the extreme 9,300% implied yield on "No" combined with a 61% realized volatility and maxed-out 10 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant tail risk embedded in this contract. The 6¢ spread and modest $154.63 daily volume indicate thin liquidity for such a high-conviction market, making the 91% probability potentially vulnerable to new candidate entry or consolidation before the March 3, 2026 primary. The 5-point price rise over seven days (86¢ to 91¢) reflects recent momentum, but the neutral regime score (0.409) and low 0.2/h information arrival rate suggest the market may be overconfident absent breaking news about the race.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x422cf80aeefc2804a7f37d8c2f95dcd109b6a024f8d5c7094afa63439ba708ef yes 100