Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. The Republican lean at 73¢ reflects a modest but meaningful advantage in this Texas district, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (67.3% for Yes versus 491.8% for No) signal that No positions are severely underpriced relative to their tail risk, suggesting the market may be overconfident in Republican performance.
Analysis
The Republican lean at 73¢ reflects a modest but meaningful advantage in this Texas district, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (67.3% for Yes versus 491.8% for No) signal that No positions are severely underpriced relative to their tail risk, suggesting the market may be overconfident in Republican performance. With only $1,029 in 24-hour volume against $13M open interest and 201 days to expiry, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns and vulnerability to sharp repricing if new information emerges about the district's 2026 dynamics. The elevated realized volatility of 112% and neutral regime score indicate this market has experienced significant price swings despite the seemingly settled 73¢ consensus, warranting caution about treating the current price as a reliable long-term forecast.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3cfd7ef787298e4814dc4218f590a8b306d7de21377e261c5cd779056818adca yes 100