Will the Democratic Party win the TX-25 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1471.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 22.5% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of Democratic chances in this traditionally Republican Texas district—though the 11¢ price likely reflects genuine structural headwinds for Democrats in TX-25. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $15,064 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the high theoretical yield, making it difficult to actually execute trades at these prices. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 8, this market appears to be pricing in a heavily Republican-favored race, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether the price reflects true probability or simply thin order books.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade