Will the Republican Party win the TX-25 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $22k open interest, suggesting the 89¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could face significant repricing if volume materializes. The asymmetric implied yields—22.5% for Yes versus 1471.7% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward Republican victory, though the massive No yield reflects the tiny 1¢ ask spread and minimal downside probability rather than genuine opportunity. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market awaiting more information, though the high cliff risk index (8) suggests potential for sharp moves as the election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade