Will the Democratic Party win the TX-28 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 68¢ reflects a modest favorite position in this Texas district, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 368.8% implied yield for "No" versus just 89.5% for "Yes"—suggesting the No side is significantly underpriced relative to perceived risk. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $10.8M open interest and an 11¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market with 201 days to expiry, creating potential slippage for meaningful position changes. The 1099% realized volatility and 10.29 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced wild price swings despite its neutral regime score, warranting caution about the reliability of the current 68¢ price as a true equilibrium.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade