Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat?

This TX-28 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.08M open interest, suggesting the $1,077 spread reflects stale pricing rather than active trading. The 498% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unsustainable, driven by the depressed 30¢ price in a district that has historically favored Democrats—this appears to be a mispriced long-shot bet rather than a genuine market consensus. With 198 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2,597%, traders should be cautious of wide bid-ask spreads and potential slippage if attempting to enter or exit positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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