Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 86% to retain TX-31, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (29.6% for Yes vs. 1117.4% for No) reveal severe illiquidity with only $138 in 24-hour volume against $15.7k open interest. The No side's absurd 1117% yield and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 suggest this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where a modest Democratic polling shift or candidate recruitment could trigger significant repricing, particularly given the 201-day runway to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade