Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat?

The market prices Republicans as heavy favorites at 83¢ with an extremely asymmetric risk profile, where a "No" bet offers an 888% implied yield compared to just 37.3% for "Yes"—suggesting the market has priced in very low upset probability but with substantial tail risk for contrarian positions. With only $222.75 in 24-hour volume against $18.95M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to positions held, creating potential slippage concerns for larger trades. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election and neutral regime score indicate this is still early-stage pricing with room for political developments to shift the race dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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