Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position collapsing 69% over seven days (from 51¢ to 16¢), yet the 24¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest the sharp repricing may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine consensus. The astronomical 691% implied yield on Yes combined with a 1860% realized volatility and 6.90 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative, illiquid position where the 16¢ price likely overstates the true probability of a referendum occurring within 258 days. The neutral regime score and 2.6 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is awaiting concrete developments, making this a high-risk bet vulnerable to sudden repricing on any peace negotiation announcements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade