Will the Republican Party win the VA-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.66M open interest, suggesting the $1,660 spread reflects stale pricing rather than active trading. The 1215% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply mispriced long-tail outcome—Republicans winning VA-07, a heavily Democratic district, would require a dramatic political shift. With 201 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2075%, this market appears to be a speculative position holder's bet rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism, making the 14¢ quote potentially unreliable for decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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