What price will Chainlink hit in April?
Leader sits at 74% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1,500
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
↓ 55,000
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$33K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
198 days
Venue
Polymarket
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 18
0x348959…042a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 20
0xc07dd4…f013
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 16
0x935edf…4857
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↓ 4
0x7180bf…868e
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↓ 6
0x60fe8a…1f28
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 22
0x9ea7b1…ef39
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 26
0xf33eb2…8ae1
What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?: ↑ 24
0x62e6bf…3c00
Analysis
This probability represents traders' collective assessment that Chainlink will reach a specific price point in April 2026. At 73%, the market is pricing in a relatively high likelihood of this outcome occurring within the timeframe. The current reading reflects recent upward momentum (up 12 points), suggesting increased confidence among participants. Key drivers include Chainlink's broader adoption trajectory in decentralized finance, near-term cryptocurrency market conditions, and macroeconomic factors affecting digital asset valuations. The resolution date in April 2026 creates a defined window for price discovery. Major shifts would likely follow significant announcements regarding Chainlink partnerships, broader Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements (given their correlation dynamics), or changes in regulatory sentiment toward blockchain infrastructure. Current trading volume concentration in Bitcoin price contracts indicates broader market focus may constrain Chainlink-specific attention and liquidity.
- ›Chainlink's price correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, given their market-leadership positions and shared macro drivers
- ›Near-term adoption metrics for Chainlink oracle services in DeFi protocols through Q3-Q4 2026
- ›Cryptocurrency market correlation with traditional financial conditions and risk-asset sentiment between now and April 2026
- ›Trading volume disparity: Bitcoin contracts dominate market activity ($19.7k to $8.9k on top pairs) versus lower Chainlink engagement, potentially affecting price discovery accuracy
- ›The 73% probability reflects a single contract leader, not a mean—downside scenarios at 66% and 34% show meaningful disagreement on directional certainty
What moved the line
- Jun 10↓ 6↓17pp60→43¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓ 6↑12pp45→57¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 18↓9pp44→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13↑ 18↓7pp51→44¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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