Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 31%, Polymarket at 49% — a 18pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
1 contract
Polymarket
49%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
18pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$31K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
198 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 31¢ · Polymarket 49¢ · 18pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (31¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
Cluster 2
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027
Analysis
This contract asks whether Patek Philippe watches will average $106,000 or higher by April 30, 2026. The current 27% probability suggests market participants view this price threshold as unlikely but possible. Patek prices depend primarily on two dynamics: luxury goods demand in high-net-worth markets, which correlates with equity indices and economic sentiment, and supply constraints in the secondary market, where rare models command premiums. The resolution depends on tracking average selling prices across major auction houses and secondary dealers through April. Key near-term catalysts include luxury sector earnings reports, central bank policy signals affecting wealth effects, and notable timepiece auctions that establish price discovery. The small 2-percentage-point spread between venues suggests modest disagreement, with relatively low trading volume indicating limited conviction across both markets.
- ›Average selling prices for Patek Philippe watches across secondary markets (auction houses, dealers) must exceed $106,000 by April 30, 2026
- ›Luxury good valuations are sensitive to equity market performance and high-net-worth consumer confidence, both of which feed into demand for expensive timepieces
- ›Supply of desirable Patek models remains constrained, which historically supports higher secondary market prices but depends on owner willingness to sell
- ›Major auction results from now through April 2026 will establish pricing benchmarks and influence final average calculations
- ›Economic policy shifts (interest rates, inflation data) between May 2026 and resolution date could alter wealth effects driving collector spending
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 55,000↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 55,000↓5pp77→72¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 50,000↑4pp57→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 45,000↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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