Will Patek prices hit __ by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 22%, Polymarket at 25% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
3 contracts
Polymarket
25%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$207K
11 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$52K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 22¢ · Polymarket 25¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (22¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (25¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “will average gas prices be above $4.4”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
Cluster 2
will average gas prices be above $4.4
Cluster 3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $200
0x5f879a…3281
Cluster 4
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
0xecd961…ad55
Cluster 5
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027
What moved the line
- May 1Above 4.460↑43pp45→88¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Above 4.460↑40pp5→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 4.460↓20pp88→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 4.460↓13pp68→55¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29↓ 45,000↓9pp39→30¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.