What price will Hyperliquid hit in April?
Leader sits at 81% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 80
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
↓ 1,500
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$47K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 80
0xc2b327…d9c4
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↑ 100
0xeae133…4467
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 20
0xa4cab1…23e9
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 8
0x587313…6b02
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 12
0x8f9956…cc8a
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
Analysis
The 75% probability indicates that traders currently believe Hyperliquid has a three-in-four chance of reaching $52 or higher in April 2026. This assessment reflects optimism about the platform's growth trajectory, though significant uncertainty remains about exchange adoption rates and token supply dynamics. The primary drivers of this probability are Hyperliquid's current market position relative to its April price target and broader crypto market conditions. Resolution will depend on actual trading volume, competitive pressures from other decentralized exchanges, and macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrency valuations. The gap between the leading probability (75%) and runner-up (69%) suggests modest consensus, with disagreement centered on execution risk and market timing rather than fundamental viability.
- ›Current Hyperliquid token price and distance to $52 April target, accounting for typical crypto volatility and time decay over 10 months
- ›Total value locked (TVL) and trading volume trends on Hyperliquid relative to competing decentralized derivatives platforms
- ›Scheduled product launches, regulatory developments, or competitive announcements between now and April 2026 that could shift exchange adoption
- ›Broader Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, since altcoin valuations typically correlate with major asset performance
- ›Token supply issuance schedule and any planned unlocks that could create selling pressure before April
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 80↑8pp69→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14↑ 100↑8pp34→42¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↓ 55,000↑6pp71→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10↑ 80↓6pp67→61¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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