What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
28%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$38K
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 18% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Cluster 2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei
0xe32a73…6063
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei
0x85d9ea…cacc
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei
0x9cd09f…d76a
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei
0xa6a9da…d16e
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei
0xb5d84b…d386
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei
0x9ea003…d5f2
Analysis
Natural gas prices have a 26% probability of reaching $3.00 or higher in April 2026, based on aggregated market forecasts. This reflects traders' expectations that prices will remain below this level during that month. Natural gas prices are primarily driven by seasonal demand patterns (heating in winter months creates upward pressure, while summer typically sees lower demand) and supply dynamics, including production levels and storage capacity. The key driver would be April's actual weather conditions and inventory data leading into the month—unseasonably cold temperatures could boost demand and push prices higher, while mild weather would exert downward pressure. Traders are currently pricing in a below-30% chance of this threshold being met, suggesting market consensus expects either sustained lower prices or typical spring seasonality.
- ›April is historically a shoulder season with declining heating demand compared to winter months, creating seasonal headwinds for price appreciation
- ›Current natural gas storage levels relative to the five-year average will influence supply tightness and price floor expectations
- ›Historical volatility in natural gas prices (often 30-50% swings month-to-month) means the $3.00 threshold represents roughly 40-60% above recent price levels
- ›Weather forecasts and temperature anomalies in March-April are the primary short-term catalyst for intramonth price movement
- ›Production growth or constraints from major producing regions (Permian, Haynesville) directly affect supply available during the resolution period
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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