Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?

This market shows extreme annualized yields (2992% for Yes, 2353% for No) driven by its imminent 14-day expiration, with Bitcoin priced at 45¢ implying a 45% probability of outperformance despite a notably wide 8¢ spread suggesting liquidity constraints. The 7-day price decline from 49¢ to 47¢ and realized volatility of 1064% indicate significant uncertainty, though the $787k daily volume and $4.05M open interest provide moderate depth for a near-expiry contract. With only two weeks until resolution and an information arrival rate of 2.1 events per hour, this market is pricing in substantial tail risk around April's comparative asset performance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms Gold in the listed month, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the last day of the specified month in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the first day of the specified month, 12:00 AM in the ET timezone (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day of the specified month to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day before the specified month, as reported by MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00). Exactly equal performance of both assets will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.

Indicators

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