Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?

The 6% probability reflects an extremely bearish gold price scenario, as a $3,400 low would represent roughly a 20% decline from current levels and sits well below recent trading ranges. The astronomical 7,725.9% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity, with only $203k in 24-hour volume against $52M open interest—a red flag suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. With 74 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a tail-risk bet where the extreme yield compensates for both the low probability and thin liquidity conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade