Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. Gold would need to surge approximately 23% from current levels to hit $6,000 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this at just 6% probability with an extreme 7,968% annualized yield on "Yes" positions—suggesting either deep skepticism about such a move or potential mispricing given gold's recent volatility (trading down from 9¢ to 6¢ in seven days).
Analysis
Gold would need to surge approximately 23% from current levels to hit $6,000 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this at just 6% probability with an extreme 7,968% annualized yield on "Yes" positions—suggesting either deep skepticism about such a move or potential mispricing given gold's recent volatility (trading down from 9¢ to 6¢ in seven days). The 2¢ spread and $43.2M open interest indicate reasonable liquidity, but the 72-day timeframe and cliff risk index of 16 suggest this is a high-stakes binary event where sentiment could shift sharply if gold approaches $5,800-$5,900 resistance levels.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
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sf trade 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232 yes 100