Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in April?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 59,370% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly underestimates the probability of gold touching $4,200 during April 2026—a level only about 6% below current spot prices. The sharp 43% price decline over 7 days combined with thin $101k daily volume and moderate liquidity ($8.9M open interest) indicates low conviction and potential for sharp reversals as the May 1st expiry approaches in just 15 days. The cliff risk index of 24 and wide gap between "Yes" (59,370%) and "No" (103.1%) yields suggest this is either a severely mispriced tail risk or reflects genuine skepticism about intraday volatility reaching that threshold.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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