Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?

This market shows extreme pricing anomalies with a 17,773% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $8.9M open interest, suggesting the 13¢ price may be stale or artificially depressed rather than reflecting genuine market consensus on Iran striking Al Zour by late April. The 824% realized volatility and 7-day decline from 14¢ to 13¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate significant tail risk and potential for sharp repricing, particularly given the 14-day expiration window and geopolitical sensitivity of the underlying event. The extremely tight 1¢ spread and near-zero recent volume raise liquidity concerns that could make this position difficult to exit at posted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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