Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 21,487% implied yield on "Yes" contracts versus 328% on "No," suggesting severe underpricing of tail risk despite the 11¢ price reflecting only an 11% probability. The sharp 5-cent decline over seven days combined with a 780% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (8/10) indicates significant recent uncertainty, though the modest $24.6K daily volume and wide 3¢ spread raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With just 14 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 1.1 events per hour, this market is pricing in a low-probability geopolitical shock event, but the extreme yield skew warrants caution about whether the current price reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity distortions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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