Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $23,500-$25,000 in December?

The 39¢ price implies only a 39% probability that NDX closes within the $23,500-$25,000 range by end of 2026, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 212% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the two-year timeframe and current realized volatility of 322%. The market shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 78¢ spread, while the 7-day decline from 44¢ to 39¢ combined with a 2.13 volatility ratio indicates recent price compression that may not reflect true uncertainty given NDX's historical moves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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