What is the current probability for "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $18,000 (LOW) in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $18,000 (LOW) in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 370.8% and 56.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $18,000 (LOW) in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $18,000 (LOW) in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $18,000 (LOW) in December?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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28¢

Bid/Ask 8/49¢·Spread 41¢·Vol $0·OI $2,067.687·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x4bc93ec95fb0cfce5d466d2eda81a4511ba430fda70db3e48e026956df4ab83f

7-day price76 snapshots · 2 regime

39¢28¢ current

Apr 812¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 370.8%

IY (No) 56.1%

Adj IY 185%

CRI 3

Overround 1.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	370.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	56.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	185%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

41¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:23:50 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4bc93ec95fb0cfce5d466d2eda81a4511ba430fda70db3e48e026956df4ab83f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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