Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $32,000 (HIGH) in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $35.06 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 56¢ spread suggesting some uncertainty. The 251.6% implied yield on the YES side appears artificially inflated given the realized volatility of 1442% and vol ratio of 12.54, indicating the market may be mispriced or suffering from thin liquidity distortions rather than genuine conviction. With NDX needing to reach $32,000 by end-2026 (a roughly 2% move from current levels) and 258 days to expiry, the low price seems inconsistent with the relatively modest target, though the near-zero trading activity warrants caution in treating this as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

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