Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?

The 52¢ price reflects moderate conviction in the $1.75T-$2.00T valuation band, though the extreme 1224% realized volatility and wide 15¢ spread suggest significant uncertainty and thin liquidity ($202.7K daily volume against $3.4M open interest). The sharp 44% price rally over seven days (36¢ to 52¢) combined with a 4.6/hour info arrival rate indicates recent positive sentiment shifts, possibly driven by SpaceX valuation discussions or funding developments, though the neutral regime score suggests this momentum lacks directional conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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