Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 10 Gwei before 2027?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $130k open interest, and a massive 38¢ bid-ask spread representing 109% of the mid-price—suggesting the 35¢ quote may not reflect true consensus. The 240% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated due to the wide spread and thin liquidity, while the 452% realized volatility and 2.95 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative contract where pricing could shift dramatically on minimal volume. With 259 days to expiry and current Ethereum gas prices well below 10 Gwei historically, the 35% probability seems reasonable on fundamentals, but traders should be cautious of execution risk given the negligible trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

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