Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 60 by April 30?

This market shows extreme disconnect between its metrics and trading activity: despite a staggering 5,037% implied yield on the "Yes" side and $76k open interest, it recorded zero volume in the past 24 hours with a wide 22¢ spread, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential stale pricing. The 33¢ price implies only a 33% probability of EVI dipping to 60 by April 30, 2026, yet the realized volatility of 1,419% and vol ratio of 2.34 indicate the market may be underpricing tail risk given Ethereum's historical volatility swings. With just 15 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a low-liquidity tail bet where the quoted yield may not reflect true execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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