What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that the Fed's median dot plot will exceed 3.0% by June 2026, yet the position shows virtually no trading activity with only $60 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal market conviction despite the extreme price.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that the Fed's median dot plot will exceed 3.0% by June 2026, yet the position shows virtually no trading activity with only $60 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal market conviction despite the extreme price. The 8¢ spread and asymmetric implied yields (51.4% for Yes versus 6796% for No) indicate severe illiquidity, making this price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 62 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the 99¢ price may reflect limited order flow rather than genuine market consensus on Fed policy expectations.
Resolution rules
If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.0% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.0 yes 100