What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $50 in open interest and volume, paired with an unusually wide 8¢ spread that suggests thin order books and high execution risk.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $50 in open interest and volume, paired with an unusually wide 8¢ spread that suggests thin order books and high execution risk. The 5550% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating the 16¢ price likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine conviction that the Fed's median dot will exceed 3.6% by mid-2026. The sharp 7-day price recovery from 1¢ to 10¢ combined with a high cliff risk index of 9 suggests recent volatility driven by sparse trades rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.6% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.6 yes 100