What is the current probability for "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2544.1% and 4.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread despite modest $867 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/13¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $867·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXFREDDIE-27APR01

7-day price32 snapshots · 2 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 9

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread despite modest $867 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction either direction. The 14¢ price implies only a 14% probability of a Freddie Mac IPO by April 2027, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2509% implied yield—a massive risk premium that likely reflects both the low base probability and the binary nature of the outcome. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, combined with the elevated 24 cliff risk index, suggests growing skepticism about an IPO announcement in this timeframe.

Resolution rules

If Freddie Mac confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2544.1%

IY (No) 4.4%

Adj IY 1272%

CRI 24

Overround -0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2544.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1272%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:11:47 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFREDDIE-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →