What is the current probability for "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 193 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Olipop IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3586.4% and 9.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Olipop IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that When will Olipop IPO?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. The 14¢ price reflects minimal conviction with zero 24-hour volume and just $200 open interest, suggesting this market lacks sufficient liquidity for reliable price discovery.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $200·Closes Nov 1, 2026·193d remaining

KXIPOOLIPOP-26NOV01

Analysis

4d ago

The 14¢ price reflects minimal conviction with zero 24-hour volume and just $200 open interest, suggesting this market lacks sufficient liquidity for reliable price discovery. The extreme 3498.6% implied yield on the Yes side is a statistical artifact of the low probability rather than genuine opportunity, and the 5¢ spread (36% of mid-price) indicates wide uncertainty among the few participants. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears dormant rather than mispriced, making it unsuitable for serious position-taking.

Resolution rules

If Olipop confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3586.4%

IY (No) 9.9%

Adj IY 1793%

CRI 19

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3586.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1793%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:11:23 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOOLIPOP-26NOV01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →