What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 90¢ (90% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 1, 2026. 223 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 20.2% and 1322.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a very high probability (91%) of SpaceX IPO by end-2026, but the extreme 1439% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $19 daily volume and $11,310 open interest are notably thin for such a confident consensus.

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90¢

Bid/Ask 89/91¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $41.51·OI $11,290·Closes Dec 1, 2026·223d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-26DEC01

7-day price91 snapshots · 7 regime

93¢89¢ current

Apr 889¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a very high probability (91%) of SpaceX IPO by end-2026, but the extreme 1439% implied yield on the No side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $19 daily volume and $11,310 open interest are notably thin for such a confident consensus. The 9 Cliff Risk Index is unusually elevated, indicating potential for sharp repricing closer to the December 2026 deadline, and the modest 7-day decline from 91¢ to 90¢ may signal early skepticism despite the market's overwhelming bullish lean.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 20.2%

IY (No) 1322.4%

Adj IY 661%

CRI 8

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	20.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1322.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	661%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:10 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-26DEC01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →