Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $70.5k open interest, a massive 87¢ spread, and realized volatility exceeding 2000%—suggesting the 48¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 314% implied yield on "Yes" appears disconnected from the underlying legislative probability, likely driven by the thin order book and low information arrival rate (4.3/h), while the recent sharp 8¢ price decline over seven days warrants caution about potential forced liquidations or position unwinding. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should treat this as a highly speculative, illiquid bet rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require the Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 5616 (119th) — “$2.50 for America’s 250th Act”. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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