Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $99.6k open interest, paired with an unusually wide 90¢ spread that suggests significant pricing uncertainty or potential stale quotes. The 1280% realized volatility and 9.88 vol ratio indicate this is a highly volatile contract, though the neutral regime and modest 7-day price recovery from 41¢ to 48¢ suggest recent stabilization around the current 49¢ midpoint. With 259 days to resolution and a 2.4/hour information arrival rate, traders are pricing in meaningful probability of AI-chip export licensing legislation, but the extreme yield asymmetry (153% vs 130%) and lack of trading activity warrant caution about whether these prices reflect genuine market consensus or stale positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6875 (119th) — “AI OVERWATCH Act.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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