Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?

This illiquid market shows extreme volatility (2424% realized) with a massive 84¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal trading activity and wide bid-ask gaps that inflate the 212% implied yield on the "Yes" side. The 49¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about routing competition legislation passing by end-2026, though the recent 8¢ price rise over seven days and high information arrival rate (4.7/hour) indicate active discussion around the topic. With only $81.74 open interest and 259 days to expiry, this market lacks sufficient liquidity for reliable probability estimation, and traders should expect significant slippage on any position entry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S.Amdt. 2229 to S. 1582 — “Credit Card Competition Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade