Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?

This DEFIANCE Act market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $122k open interest and a massive 76¢ spread, suggesting traders are largely locked into positions with minimal price discovery. The 159% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the low baseline probability (44¢) combined with the ~259-day time horizon, but the 803% realized volatility and 6.57 vol ratio indicate wild historical swings that dwarf typical legislative prediction markets. With a neutral regime score and modest 2.3 info arrivals per hour, the market appears to be pricing in genuine legislative uncertainty rather than responding to active news flow, making the current 44¢ price potentially sticky until concrete Congressional action emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes the S. 1837 (119th) — “DEFIANCE Act of 2025.” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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